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Lost memories and useless coins: revisiting the absentminded driver

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Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)3011-3036
Number of pages26
Issue number9
Early online date26 Feb 2015
Publication statusPublished - Oct 2015


The puzzle of the absentminded driver combines an unstable decision problem with a version of the Sleeping Beauty problem. Its analysis depends on the choice between “halfing” and “thirding” as well as that between “evidential” and “causal” decision theory. I show that all four combinations lead to interestingly different solutions, and draw some general lessons about the formulation of causal decision theory, the interpretation of mixed strategies and the connection between rational credence and objective chance.

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