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Monte Carlo Simulation for Reliability Estimation of Phased-Mission Systems with Minimum Operational Time Requirement

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Original languageEnglish
Number of pages6
JournalJournal of Shanghai Jiaotong University (Science)
StateAccepted/In press - 20 Sep 2016


This paper presents a Monte Carlo simulation approach for evaluating the mission reliability of a phased mission system (PMS) that has time redundancy in
mission execution during some phases. This means that the system is not required to remain operational throughout the time interval of the phase; instead it just needs to work normally for a time interval no less than a given length. A Monte Carlo simulation procedure and the associated flowcharts are provided in detail. A simplified PMS is used as an illustrative example. Both the point estimate and the confidence interval of the mission reliability are derived by the proposed approach. The mission reliability is compared with that of PMS without time redundancy. The results show that the mission reliability may be seriously under-estimated if time redundancy is not taken into consideration.

ID: 27978388