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Protective factors in violence risk assessment: Predictive validity of the SAPROF and HCR-20V3

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    Rights statement: This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in the International Journal of Forensic Mental Health on 07 Aug 2019, available online: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14999013.2019.1643811.

    Accepted author manuscript, 318 KB, PDF document

Original languageEnglish
Number of pages19
JournalInternational journal of forensic mental health
Early online date7 Aug 2019
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 7 Aug 2019


Research and practice in violence risk assessment in forensic mental health primarily focuses on risk factors; however consideration of protective factors may improve the accuracy and utility of assessments. Using a pseudo-prospective design, the predictive and incremental validity of protective factors was explored using the Structured Assessment of Protective Factors (SAPROF) and Historical Clinical Risk Management-20 (HCR-20V3) in 75 male inpatients in a secure setting. Over a twelve month period, protective factors significantly predicted the absence of inpatient (institutional) violence and risk factors, particularly dynamic factors, predicted the presence of violence. Hierarchical logistic regression did not establish the incremental validity of the SAPROF. Preliminary evidence for the predictive and incremental validity of the Integrative Final Risk Judgment was found with patients categorised as high risk being 33.6 times more likely to be violent than those rated low risk. High risk ratings were associated with fewer protective factors and more risk factors. Therefore, whilst dynamic risk factors are clear targets for risk management, consideration of protective factors may contribute to overall estimates of risk and provide additional targets for intervention.

    Research areas

  • violence risk, assessment, protective factors, SAPROF, HCR-20

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