TY - JOUR
T1 - Subjunctive conditional probability
AU - Schwarz, Wolfgang
PY - 2018/2/28
Y1 - 2018/2/28
N2 - There seem to be two ways of supposing a proposition: supposing “indicatively” that Shakespeare didn’t write Hamlet, it is likely that someone else did; supposing “subjunctively” that Shakespeare hadn’t written Hamlet, it is likely that nobody would have written the play. Let P(B//A) be the probability of B on the subjunctive supposition that A. Is P(B//A) equal to the probability of the corresponding counterfactual, A□→B? I review recent triviality arguments against this hypothesis and argue that they do not succeed. On the other hand, I argue that even if we can equate P(B//A) with P(A□→B), we still need an account of how subjunctive conditional probabilities are related to unconditional probabilities. The triviality arguments reveal that the connection is not as straightforward as one might have hoped.
AB - There seem to be two ways of supposing a proposition: supposing “indicatively” that Shakespeare didn’t write Hamlet, it is likely that someone else did; supposing “subjunctively” that Shakespeare hadn’t written Hamlet, it is likely that nobody would have written the play. Let P(B//A) be the probability of B on the subjunctive supposition that A. Is P(B//A) equal to the probability of the corresponding counterfactual, A□→B? I review recent triviality arguments against this hypothesis and argue that they do not succeed. On the other hand, I argue that even if we can equate P(B//A) with P(A□→B), we still need an account of how subjunctive conditional probabilities are related to unconditional probabilities. The triviality arguments reveal that the connection is not as straightforward as one might have hoped.
KW - Probability
KW - Supposition
KW - Counterfactuals
KW - Triviality
KW - Decision theory
U2 - 10.1007/s10992-016-9416-8
DO - 10.1007/s10992-016-9416-8
M3 - Article
VL - 47
SP - 47
EP - 66
JO - Journal of Philosophical Logic
JF - Journal of Philosophical Logic
SN - 0022-3611
IS - 1
ER -