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The Edinburgh CT and genetic diagnostic criteria for lobar intracerebral haemorrhage with cerebral amyloid angiopathy: model development and diagnostic test accuracy study

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    Rights statement: © The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.

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https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1474442218300061
Original languageEnglish
JournalLancet Neurology
Early online date10 Jan 2018
DOIs
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 10 Jan 2018

Abstract

Background: Identifying lobar spontaneous intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) associated with cerebral amyloid angiopathy (CAA) is important because it has a higher risk of recurrent ICH compared with arteriolosclerosis-associated ICH. We aimed to develop a prediction model for identifying CAA-associated lobar ICH using CT features and genotype.
Methods: We identified adults with first-ever ICH diagnosed by CT, who died and underwent research post-mortem in a prospective, population-based inception cohort study. We determined apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype and radiologists rated CT imaging appearances masked to clinical, genetic and histopathological features. A neuropathologist rated brain tissue for small vessel diseases including CAA masked to clinical, radiographic and genetic features. We used CT and APOE data in a logistic regression model, which we internally validated using bootstrapping, to predict the risk of CAA-associated lobar ICH, derive diagnostic criteria, and estimate diagnostic accuracy.
Findings: Among 110 adults (median age 83 years [IQR 76-87], 49 [45%] male), ICH was lobar in 62 (56%), deep in 41 (37%) and infratentorial in seven (6%). Among 62 lobar ICH, 36 (58%) were CAA-associated and were independently associated with subarachnoid haemorrhage (32/36 [89%] versus 11/26 [42%]; p=0·01), ICH with finger-like projections (14/36 [39%] versus 0/26 [0%]; p=0·04) and APOE ε4+ (18/36 [50%] versus 2/26 [8%]; p=0·002). A diagnostic model for CAA-associated lobar ICH using these three variables had excellent discrimination (c-statistic 0·92, 95%CI 0·86-0·98), confirmed by internal validation. The rule-out criteria neither subarachnoid haemorrhage nor APOE ε4+ had 100% sensitivity (95%CI 88-100%). The rule-in criteria subarachnoid haemorrhage and either APOE ε4+ or finger-like projections had 96% specificity (95%CI 78-100%).
Interpretation: The CT and APOE genotype prediction model for CAA-associated lobar ICH shows excellent discrimination in this cohort, but requires external validation. The Edinburgh ‘rule-in’ and ‘rule-out’ diagnostic criteria might inform prognostic and therapeutic decisions that depend on identifying CAA-associated lobar ICH.

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