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To what extent can new web-based technology improve forecasts? Assessing the economic value of information derived from Virtual Globes and its rate of diffusion in a financial market

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)226-239
Number of pages14
JournalEuropean Journal of Operational Research
Volume278
Issue number1
Early online date17 Apr 2019
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Oct 2019

Abstract

As the rate of information availability increases, the ability to use web-based technology to improve forecasting becomes increasingly important. We examine Virtual Globe technology and show how the arrival of unprecedented types of web-based information enhances the ability to forecast and can lead to significant, measurable economic benefits. Specifically, we use market prices in a betting market over an eighteen-year period to examine how new elevation data from Virtual Globes (VG) enabled improved forecasting decisions and we explore how this information diffused through the betting market. The results demonstrate how short-lived, profitable opportunities arise from the arrival of novel information, and the speed at which markets adapt over time to account fully for new data.

    Research areas

  • Forecasting, Adaptive markets, Virtual Globes, Market efficiency, Longitudinal study

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